Sunday, February 19, 2006

Greatest Foreign Policy Failure of our Generation

The Iraq war is looking more and more like it is going to go down as the greatest American foreign policy debacle since the Vietnam War. Today's newspapers all tell the story. Knight Ridder has the story about the toll on American lives and military equipment:
There are always costs in a war, human costs and hardware costs, and as we draw close to beginning the fourth year of our operations in Iraq, it's time to tally those costs one more time.

As of this week, a total of 2,270 Americans have lost their lives in Iraq, the great majority of those losses suffered in combat. The number of wounded has reached 16,653, just over half of those marked wounded but returned to duty.

A little-known cost is in vehicles lost in combat. Just for the U.S. Army alone that number has reached nearly 1,000. The cost for replacing those totally destroyed vehicles and overhauling thousands more worn out by heavy use totals $9 billion in this year's proposed defense budget and in the off-budget emergency wartime supplemental budget Congress passes twice each fiscal year.

Since the Iraq combat operations began in the winter of 2003, the Army has lost 20 M1 Abrams tanks; 50 Bradley fighting vehicles; 20 Stryker wheeled combat vehicles; 20 M113 armored personnel carriers; 250 Humvees; and some 500 Fox wheeled reconnaissance vehicles, mine clearing vehicles and heavy- and medium-transport trucks and trailers.

The bulk of these losses in tracked and wheeled vehicles were to the ubiquitous improvised explosive devices, or IEDs, that the insurgents employ to such deadly purpose.

To that equipment toll, for both Afghanistan and Iraq, add 27 Apache attack helicopters; 21 Blackhawk utility helicopters; 23 Kiowa Warrior assault helicopters; and 14 big Chinook cargo helicopters.
The Los Angeles Times tells us how the Iraq war is turning Iran, a member of the "axis of evil," into a world power:

The Islamic government in neighboring Iran watched with trepidation in March 2003 when U.S.-led troops stormed Iraq to overthrow Saddam Hussein's regime and start remaking the political map of the Mideast.

In retrospect, the Islamic Republic could have celebrated: The war has left America's longtime nemesis with profound influence in the new Iraq and pushed it to the apex of power in the region.

Emboldened by its new status and shielded by deep oil reserves, Tehran is pressing ahead with its nuclear program, daring the international community to impose sanctions. Iran is a Shiite Muslim nation with an ethnic Persian majority, and the blossoming of its influence has fueled the ambitions of long-repressed Shiites throughout the Arab world.

At the same time, Tehran has tightened alliances with groups such as Hamas, which recently won Palestinian elections, and with governments in Damascus and Beijing.

In the 1980s, Iran spent eight years and thousands of lives waging a war to overthrow Hussein, whose regime buffered the Sunni Muslim-dominated Arab world from Iran. But in the end, it took the U.S.-led invasion to topple Iraq's dictator and allow Iranian influence to spread through a chaotic, battle-torn country.

Now Iraq's fledgling democracy has placed power in the hands of the nation's Shiite majority and its Kurdish allies, many of whom lived as exiles in Iran and maintain strong religious, cultural and linguistic ties to it. The two groups sit atop most of Iraq's oil, and both seek a decentralized government that would give them maximum control of it. A weak central government would also limit Sunni influence.

The proposed changes have aggravated ancient tensions between the two branches of Islam, not to mention Arabs and Iranians. Neighboring countries have historical and tribal links to Iraq's Sunnis.

"A weak Iraq is now sitting next to a huge, mighty Iran. Now the only counterpart to Iran is not a regional power, but a foreign power like the United States," said Abdel Khaleq Abdullah, a political analyst and television host in Dubai. "This is unsustainable. It's bad for [Persian] Gulf security. It's given Iran a sense of supremacy that we all feel."
The Washington Post tells us about a major oil deal between Iran and China:
China is hastening to complete a deal worth as much as $100 billion that would allow a Chinese state-owned energy firm to take a leading role in developing a vast oil field in Iran, complicating the Bush administration's efforts to isolate the Middle Eastern nation and roll back its nuclear development plans, according to published reports.

The completion of the agreement would advance China's global quest for new stocks of energy. It could also undermine U.S. and European initiatives to halt Iran's nuclear plans, possibly generating friction in China's relations with outside powers.

Never in their wildest neo-con fantasies did they see any of this coming. Absolutely the worst President ever.



2 comments:

Anonymous said...

I'd be interested to hear your opinion on a viable solution to the present disaster in Iraq

liberal pastor said...

Fair question with no easy answer. I believe, first of all, that we have created a deep mess and we can't just leave the country and the mess behind. But I also believe that the same level of intelligence that got us into the mess will not get us out. There will be no hope for change until we have regime change at home. Then, I believe 1) we must move to rebuild trust in the region by closing Guantanamo and Abu Graib, making a full investigation and accounting of what happened there; 2) pledging to abide by all international human rights treaties and agreeing to international monitoring; 3) pledging that we have no interests in permanent military bases in Iraq; 4) seeking real international partners and investments in the rebuilding of Iraq -- as a start to winning the hearts and minds of Iraqis and Muslims.

There is no way to quickly undue the damage that has been done, or change the balance of power that now favors Iran. We are going to have to deal with them and their influence over an Iraqi government that we are not going to like either. But if we engage them constructively, from a position that has some moral integrity, we will have a chance to make a positive difference in the region.

Finally, since it is our dependence on oil that brought us to Iraq in the first place, we are going to need to address our oil habit. Won't that be easy!