Support for Gay Marriage Amendment Erodes

As I said yesterday, I think this is the last hurrah for the supporters of the the gay marriage amendment to the constitution. Today's Pioneer Press tells why:

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According to a new survey from the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press, "the atmosphere surrounding the issue of gay marriage has cooled off, and public intensity has dissipated compared with two years ago."

Back then, Pew found that 58 percent of Americans 65 and older strongly opposed gay marriage. Today, that opposition has dropped to 33 percent. Republicans who strongly oppose gay marriage fell from 59 percent in 2004 to 41 percent now.

The passion has cooled even among white evangelical Protestants, whose strong opposition has receded from 65 percent in 2004 to 56 percent today.

Closer to home, a study of 625 registered Minnesota voters by the Minneapolis polling firm Decision Resources Ltd., commissioned by the advocacy group Equality Minnesota, found that Minnesota voters may be getting cold feet about a constitutional amendment. Only 40 percent say they'd support one. Support drops to 28 percent if the amendment also bans civil unions.

This is markedly different from a year before, when a Mason-Dixon poll for the advocacy group Marriage for Minnesota found that 61 percent of Minnesota residents said they would vote for a constitutional amendment.

So what happened? Could it be the constant attention focused on this constitutional amendment has reminded voters we already have a law against same-sex marriage? Could it be discussing the news with friends and family — some 40 percent of Minnesota voters say they have a close friend or relative who is gay — has somehow softened the resistance of the voters who might have been most opposed? Or could it be that pushing such a ban in a state that has other problems to solve seems like the most cynical of election year ploys?

Researchers didn't phrase a question quite like that. But when they asked whether the anti-gay marriage amendment "could be a distraction from other important issues facing Minnesota," three out of four voters said yes.

For months now, amendment supporters have claimed opponents are afraid to let Minnesota voters have their say on the issue in a general election.

But judging from these new numbers, the folks consuming precious time at the Capitol forcing a constitutional amendment on the ballot may have more to fear come November.